Our model gives Universidad Católica a 50% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Estudiantes.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Universidad Católica have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Estudiantes have done so in 1 of their last 5.