Our model gives Union Plaani a 33% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 50% for Reipas.

Both teams are projected to score in 75% of simulations, against 25% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 83% likelihood against 17% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Union Plaani have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Reipas have done so in 3 of their last 3.