Our model gives Union Omaha a 59% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 19% for One Knoxville.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Union Omaha have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and One Knoxville have done so in 2 of their last 3.