Our model gives União de Leiria a 46% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Tondela.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, União de Leiria have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Tondela have done so in 1 of their last 1.