Our model gives Unión Santa Fe a 40% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Independiente.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Unión Santa Fe have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Independiente have done so in 1 of their last 5.