Our model gives Unión San Felipe a 38% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Deportes Santa Cruz.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Unión San Felipe have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5, and Deportes Santa Cruz have done so in 3 of their last 4.