Our model gives Unión Magdalena a 62% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Orsomarso.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Unión Magdalena have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Orsomarso have done so in 0 of their last 1.