Our model gives Unión Magdalena a 62% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Leones FC.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Unión Magdalena have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Leones FC have done so in 0 of their last 2.