Our model gives Unión Magdalena a 53% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Deportes Quindío.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Unión Magdalena have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Deportes Quindío have done so in 1 of their last 3.