Our model gives Unión Española a 44% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 30% for San Marcos.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Unión Española have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and San Marcos have done so in 0 of their last 5.