Our model gives Unión Española a 42% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Rangers.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Unión Española have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Rangers have done so in 1 of their last 5.