Our model gives Uni Minsk a 30% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 46% for Smorgon.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Uni Minsk have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5, and Smorgon have done so in 1 of their last 4.