Our model gives Uni Azzurri a 65% chance to win this one, against 15% for a draw and 20% for Mindil Aces.

Both teams are projected to score in 66% of simulations, against 34% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 77% likelihood against 23% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Uni Azzurri have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Mindil Aces have done so in 3 of their last 3.