Our model gives Uni Azzurri a 93% chance to win this one, against 4% for a draw and 3% for Garuda.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 92% likelihood against 8% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Uni Azzurri have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Garuda have done so in 4 of their last 4.