Our model gives Ulsan Citize a 32% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 38% for Gwangju.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 43% likelihood against 57% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ulsan Citize have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Gwangju have done so in 2 of their last 5.