Our model gives UD Oliveirense a 46% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Penafiel.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, UD Oliveirense have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Penafiel have done so in 1 of their last 2.