Our model gives Tulsa Roughnecks a 46% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Lexington.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tulsa Roughnecks have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Lexington have done so in 0 of their last 1.