Our model gives Tukums a 46% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Grobiņa.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tukums have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Grobiņa have done so in 3 of their last 3.