Our model gives Tukums a 35% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 39% for FS Jelgava.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tukums have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and FS Jelgava have done so in 1 of their last 3.