Our model gives Tuggeranong United a 28% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 56% for Queanbeyan City.

Both teams are projected to score in 69% of simulations, against 31% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 74% likelihood against 26% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tuggeranong United have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Queanbeyan City have done so in 3 of their last 4.