Our model gives Tuggeranong United a 34% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 50% for Gungahlin Juventus.

Both teams are projected to score in 73% of simulations, against 27% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 80% likelihood against 20% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tuggeranong United have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Gungahlin Juventus have done so in 3 of their last 3.