Our model gives Tuggen a 19% chance to win this one, against 15% for a draw and 66% for Zürich.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 73% likelihood against 27% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tuggen have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Zürich have done so in 4 of their last 4.