Our model gives Tuggen a 31% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 48% for Taverne.

Both teams are projected to score in 67% of simulations, against 33% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 71% likelihood against 29% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tuggen have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Taverne have done so in 1 of their last 1.