Our model gives Tucumán Central a 44% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Sarmiento de La Banda.

Both teams are projected to score in 42% of simulations, against 58% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 37% likelihood against 63% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tucumán Central have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Sarmiento de La Banda have done so in 0 of their last 1.