Our model gives Treze a 38% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 30% for EC São José.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 34% likelihood against 66% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Treze have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and EC São José have done so in 0 of their last 1.