Our model gives Trefelin a 44% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Caernarfon Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Trefelin have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Caernarfon Town have done so in 3 of their last 3.