Our model gives Tosno Sankt-Peterburg a 51% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 27% for Cherepovets.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tosno Sankt-Peterburg have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Cherepovets have done so in 0 of their last 1.