Our model gives Tokushima Vortis a 35% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 36% for Sagan Tosu.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tokushima Vortis have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Sagan Tosu have done so in 0 of their last 1.