Our model gives Tokushima Vortis a 48% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Oita Trinita.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tokushima Vortis have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Oita Trinita have done so in 0 of their last 2.