Our model gives Tokushima Vortis a 42% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Iwaki.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tokushima Vortis have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Iwaki have done so in 2 of their last 2.