Our model gives Toktogul a 22% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 56% for Ozgon.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Toktogul have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Ozgon have done so in 4 of their last 4.