Our model gives Toktogul a 75% chance to win this one, against 14% for a draw and 11% for Kara-Balta.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 70% likelihood against 30% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Toktogul have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Kara-Balta have done so in 3 of their last 3.