Our model gives Tobol a 55% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Zhenys.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tobol have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Zhenys have done so in 3 of their last 4.