Our model gives Tobol a 49% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Yelimay Semey.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tobol have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Yelimay Semey have done so in 1 of their last 3.