Our model gives Tobol a 67% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Kaisar.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tobol have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Kaisar have done so in 2 of their last 3.