Our model gives Tilbury a 72% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 11% for Wormley Rovers.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tilbury have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Wormley Rovers have done so in 0 of their last 1.