Our model gives Tigre a 49% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 21% for Barracas Central.

Both teams are projected to score in 38% of simulations, against 62% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 32% likelihood against 68% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tigre have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 6, and Barracas Central have done so in 0 of their last 4.