Our model gives Thun a 35% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 43% for Víkingur Reykjavík.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Thun have gone over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 6, and Víkingur Reykjavík have done so in 4 of their last 5.