Our model gives Thróttur Reykjavík a 44% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 34% for Fylkir.

Both teams are projected to score in 67% of simulations, against 33% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 67% likelihood against 33% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Thróttur Reykjavík have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Fylkir have done so in 3 of their last 4.