Our model gives The Strongest a 72% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 12% for Universitario de Vinto.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, The Strongest have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Universitario de Vinto have done so in 2 of their last 5.