Our model gives The New Saints a 73% chance to win this one, against 15% for a draw and 12% for Colwyn Bay.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, The New Saints have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Colwyn Bay have done so in 2 of their last 3.