Our model gives Thalwil a 12% chance to win this one, against 13% for a draw and 75% for St. Gallen.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 75% likelihood against 25% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Thalwil have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and St. Gallen have done so in 6 of their last 6.