Our model gives TerDU a 7% chance to win this one, against 14% for a draw and 79% for Metallurg.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, TerDU have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Metallurg have done so in 2 of their last 4.