Our model gives Tepatitlán de Morelos a 67% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Dorados.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tepatitlán de Morelos have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Dorados have done so in 1 of their last 2.