Our model gives Telstar a 20% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 59% for Ajax.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Telstar have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Ajax have done so in 3 of their last 4.