Our model gives Tekstilshchik a 43% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Arsenal Tula.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tekstilshchik have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Arsenal Tula have done so in 2 of their last 4.