Our model gives Tasmania Berlin a 21% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 59% for Erzgebirge Aue.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 68% likelihood against 32% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tasmania Berlin have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Erzgebirge Aue have done so in 3 of their last 4.