Our model gives Tartu Welco a 41% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 36% for Viimsi.

Both teams are projected to score in 67% of simulations, against 33% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 68% likelihood against 32% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tartu Welco have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Viimsi have done so in 5 of their last 5.