Our model gives Tapatío a 57% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 22% for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tapatío have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Tepatitlán de Morelos have done so in 2 of their last 4.