Our model gives Tapatío a 46% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Jaiba Brava.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tapatío have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Jaiba Brava have done so in 1 of their last 3.